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One study found that the mud volcano was collapsing under its own weight, possibly beginning caldera formation. Their research used GPS and satellite data recorded between June and September that showed the area affected by Lusi had subsided by between 0.

They proposed that the subsidence was due to the weight of mud and collapse of rock strata due to the excavation of mud from beneath the surface.

Their study also found that while some parts of Sidoarjo were subsiding, others were rising suggesting that the Watukosek fault system had been reactivated because of the eruption.

A study by a group of Indonesian geo-scientists led by Bambang Istadi predicted the area affected by the mudflow over a ten-year period. After new hot gas flows began to appear, workers started relocating families and some were injured in the process.

The workers were taken to a local hospital to undergo treatment for severe burns. In Siring Barat, more families were displaced and in Kelurahan Jatirejo, new families were expected to be affected by the new flows of gas.

Protesting families took to the streets demanding compensation which in turn added more delays to the already stressed detour road for Jalan Raya Porong and the Porong-Gempol toll road.

The Indonesian government has stated that their heart is with the people. However the cabinet meeting on how to disburse compensation has been delayed until further notice.

A local official Saiful Ilah signed a statement announcing that, "The government is going to defend the people of Siring.

The Australian oil and gas company Santos Limited was a minority partner in the venture until The amount was covered by existing provision for costs relating to the incident.

Santos had stated in June that it maintained "appropriate insurance coverage for these types of occurrences".

New mudflows spots begun in April , this time on Porong Highway, which is the main road linking Surabaya with Probolinggo and islands to the east including Bali , despite roadway thickening and strengthening.

A new highway is planned to replace this one however are held up by land acquisition issues. The main railway also runs by the area, which is in danger of explosions due to seepage of methane and ignition could come from something as simple as a tossed cigarette.

By mid, reimbursement payments for victims had not been fully settled, and legal action against the company had stalled.

It is worth mentioning that the owner of the energy company, Aburizal Bakrie was the Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare at the time of the disaster, and is currently the chairman of Golkar , one of the most influential political parties in Indonesia.

The Sidojaro mud is rich in rock salt halite and has provided a source of income for the local residents who have been harvesting the salt for sale at the local market.

In late , international scientists who had been monitoring the situation were reported as saying that the eruption of mud at Sidoardjo was falling away quite rapidly and that the indications were that the eruption might cease by perhaps , much earlier than previously estimated.

The scientists noted that the system was losing pressure quite rapidly and had begun pulsing rather than maintaining a steady flow.

The pulsing pattern, it was believed, was a clear sign that the geological forces driving the eruption were subsiding.

By the mudflow continued with tens of thousands of liters of mud contaminated with heavy metals leaking into rivers. Out of the three hypotheses on the cause of the Lusi mud volcano, the hydro fracturing hypothesis appeared to be the one most debated.

On 23 October a public relations agency in London, acting for one of the oil well's owners, started to widely publicise what it described as "new facts" on the origin of the mud volcano, which were subsequently presented at an American Association of Petroleum Geologists conference in Cape Town , South Africa on 28 October see next section.

In , this well data was finally released and published in the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology for the scientific community uses by the geologists and drillers from Energi Mega Persada.

After such release, however, future scientific research on Lusi should have access to a set of credible data and not be as constraint as early authors were with their limited and questionable quality of data to back their claims.

After hearing the revised arguments from both sides for the cause of the mud volcano at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists International Convention in Cape Town in October , the vast majority of the conference session audience present consisting of AAPG oil and gas professionals voted in favor of the view that the Lusi Sidoarjo mudflow had been induced by drilling.

On the basis of the arguments presented, 42 out of the 74 scientists came to the conclusion that drilling was entirely responsible, while 13 felt that a combination of drilling and earthquake activity was to blame.

Only 3 thought that the earthquake was solely responsible, and 16 geoscientists believed that the evidence was inconclusive.

It further cautioned readers not to consider the voting result in any way as a scientific validation. On the possible trigger of Lusi mud volcano, a group of geologists and drilling engineers from the oil company countered the hydro fracturing hypothesis.

It is therefore unlikely that the well was fractured as charged. Their paper also published data and well information for the first time to the scientific communities as opinions and technical papers up to that time lacked accurate well data and were forced to rely on a number of assumptions.

However, subsequent studies have refuted the claims made in this paper, and have highlighted that a number of claims made in this study are directly contradicted by the oil company's own well-site reports and documents.

In February , a group led by experts from Britain's Durham University said the new clues bolstered suspicions the catastrophe was caused by human error.

They had overestimated the pressure the well could tolerate, and had not placed protective casing around a section of open well.

Then, after failing to find any gas, they hauled the drill out while the hole was extremely unstable. By withdrawing the drill, they exposed the wellhole to a "kick" from pressurized water and gas from surrounding rock formations.

The result was a volcano -like inflow that the drillers tried in vain to stop. In the same Marine and Petroleum Geology journal, the group of geologists and drilling engineers refuted the allegation showing that the "kick" maximum pressure were too low to fracture the rock formation.

This implied that the hydro fracturing hypothesis is likely to be incorrect. They further stated that the model developed by Prof.

Davies is much too simplistic by not considering all the available dataset and information in its analysis. The technical paper in this series of debate presents the first balanced overview on the anatomy of the Lusi mud volcanic system with particular emphasis on the critical uncertainties and their influence on the disaster.

More geological field studies and analysis based on factual data need to be done before any conclusion can be deduced on what actually caused Lusi mud volcano.

In February , Tingay [14] compiled a new and detailed chronology of the drilling of the Banjar Panji-1 well and the first days of the Sidoarjo mudflow.

This chronology is built from daily drilling reports and well-site reports and is the first to highlight and document the numerous inconsistencies between papers and reports.

The new chronology [14] highlights that a number of key claims made by Lapindo Brantas are contradicted by their own daily drilling and well-site reports that are included as an appendix in [13].

These include the claims that losses occurred seven minutes after the earthquake when drilling data actually suggests losses preceded the earthquake ; that losses at total depth occurred immediately after major aftershocks whereas total losses occurred over 1.

In July , Lupi et al. As a result, seimic waves were geometrically focused at the Lusi site leading to mud and CO 2 generation and a reactivation of the local Watukosek Fault.

According to their hypothesis the fault is linked to a deep hydrothermal system that feeds the eruption. In June , Tingay et al. Image shows scale of the mud hole, with efforts to contain it by removing the mud and creating embankments for flood defence.

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